一、课程名称 / Course Title
多准则决策分析（MCDA）在可持续发展中的应用
Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) in Sustainable Development Applications
二、主讲人 / Instructor
Dr. Nikolai Bobylev
俄罗斯国立水文气象大学副教授，俄罗斯联邦空间规划国家科研设计研究院首席专家，国际隧道与地下空间协会第15工作组（地下与环境）副主席，《Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology》（Elsevier）副主编。主持/核心参与中俄联合、俄罗斯基础研究基金会、欧盟ERA.Net RUS Plus等资助的数十项国际科研项目。研究方向主要集中于环境管理与评价、决策分析方法及应用、城市发展与规划、地下空间利用、北极地区可持续发展及联合国体系与国际发展组织相关研究。获日本学术振兴会、亚历山大冯洪堡基金会、欧盟玛丽居里等知名基金会研究奖项，为UNECE、UNHabitat、UNEP、UNDP等联合国机构担任国际咨询专家，发表环境、城市规划、地下空间领域英俄双语学术成果超百篇，另著有学术书籍章节、会议论文集、行业咨询报告等数十部。
Dr. Nikolai Bobylev is Associate Professor at the Russian State Hydrometeorological University and Lead Expert at the State Research and Design Institute for Spatial Planning of the Russian Federation. He also serves as Vice-Chair of Working Group 15 (Underground and the Environment) of the International Tunnelling and Underground Space Association and as Associate Editor of Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology (Elsevier). His research focuses on environmental management and assessment, decision analysis methods and applications, urban development and planning, underground space utilization, and sustainable development. He has led or contributed to numerous international research projects funded by China–Russia cooperation programs, the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, and the EU ERA.Net RUS Plus, among others. Dr. Bobylev has received research fellowships and awards from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, and the EU Marie Curie program, and has served as an international consultant for UNECE, UN-Habitat, UNEP, and UNDP. He has published extensively in the fields of environment, urban planning, and underground space.
三、课程目标 / Course Objectives
本课程旨在培养学员进行高影响力决策的能力，使决策过程具有逻辑性、可辩护性，并能够在实际应用中提高决策成功率。同时掌握多准则决策分析（MCDA）方法，并应用于环境与交通等领域的复杂问题。
This course aims to develop the ability to make high-impact decisions that are reasoned, defensible, and successful in practice. Participants will learn and apply Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to complex problems in environmental and transport systems.
四、内容简介 / Course Overview
本课程围绕多准则决策分析（MCDA）展开，重点介绍如何运用科学、可辩护的决策方法处理环境与交通领域中的复杂问题。课程将结合理论讲授与案例分析，系统讲解MCDA的基本原理、建模方法及其在环境资源管理、交通运输、海运与物流等可持续发展问题中的应用。
This course focuses on Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and explores how reasoned and defensible decision-making methods can be applied to complex problems in environment and transport. Combining theory with case studies, the course introduces the principles of MCDA, modeling approaches, and their applications in environmental resource management, transportation, maritime transport, and logistics for sustainable development.
五、课程大纲 / Course Outline
Seminar 1：MCDA方法与问题建模基础 / Foundations of MCDA and Problem Structuring
系统回顾多准则决策分析（MCDA）的基本方法与发展背景，重点讲解决策问题的结构化过程，包括问题定义、目标识别及环境评估的基本概念，引导学生建立初步分析框架。
Systematic review of MCDA methods and background, focusing on problem structuring, including problem definition, identification of objectives, and basic concepts of environmental assessment to establish an initial analytical framework.
Seminar 2：层次分析法（AHP）理论与应用 / Theory and Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
介绍Saaty层次分析法（AHP）的理论基础与计算流程，包括判断矩阵构建、一致性检验及权重计算，并结合案例分析其在环境与政策决策中的应用。
Introduction to the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), including pairwise comparisons, consistency checks, and weight calculation, with applications in environmental and policy decision-making.
Seminar 3：备选方案生成与环境决策场景 / Generation of Alternatives in Environmental Decision Contexts
探讨环境影响评价（EIA）与战略环境评价（SEA）中的备选方案构建方法，分析不同方案在多维度评价指标下的表现。
Generation of alternatives in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), and evaluation of alternatives across multiple criteria.
Seminar 4：层级结构与敏感性分析 / Hierarchies and Sensitivity Analysis
讲解决策层级结构的构建方法，并通过敏感性分析评估模型稳定性，分析关键参数变化对决策结果的影响。
Development of hierarchical structures and application of sensitivity analysis to evaluate model robustness and the impact of parameter changes.
Seminar 5：评分体系与权重方法 / Ratings and Weighting Methods
介绍评分体系设计方法，探讨定量与定性指标的整合，以及不同权重分配方式对决策结果的影响。
Design of rating systems, integration of qualitative and quantitative criteria, and analysis of weighting methods in decision-making.
Seminar 6：网络分析法（ANP）与复杂关系建模 / Analytic Network Process (ANP) and Modeling of Complex Relationships
介绍网络分析法（ANP），重点分析决策因素之间的相互依赖与反馈关系，构建复杂决策模型。
Introduction to the Analytic Network Process (ANP), focusing on interdependencies and feedback relationships among decision elements.
Seminar 7：复杂系统与高级MCDA模型 / Complex Systems and Advanced MCDA Models
结合国家安全与环境技术评估案例，讲解复杂决策系统中的多层级、多因素模型构建与应用。
Overview of complex MCDA models with applications in national defense and environmental technology assessment.
Seminar 8：学生模型展示与学术讨论 / Student Model Presentations and Academic Discussion
学生展示其MCDA模型并进行学术讨论，提升模型表达能力与分析能力。
Student presentations of MCDA models with discussion and feedback.
Seminar 9：课程总结与最终评估 / Course Wrap-up and Final Evaluation
通过最终展示与评估，总结课程内容，考察学生对MCDA方法的理解与应用能力。
Final presentations and evaluation of student projects, assessing understanding and application of MCDA methods.
六、课程安排（第一阶段） / Schedule(Phase I)
Ø日期 / Dates：2026年4月23日–24日 / April 23–24, 2026
Ø地点 / Venue：科研楼517A/
Ø时间安排 / Daily Schedule：
▪上午 / Morning：09:30 – 11:30
▪下午 / Afternoon：12:30 – 14:00
